Kishore Mahbubani, Professor in the Practice of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore and author of Has the West Lost It?:
George Orwell once famously remarked that “to see what is in front of one’s nose needs a constant struggle.” This aptly describes America’s struggle to understand its changing relationship with China. It is absolutely certain that within the next decade, China will become the world’s number one economy and America will become number two. The logical thing for American policymakers to do is therefore to prepare for becoming number two.
However, it may be psychologically impossible for America to do so. I learned this when I chaired a forum in Davos in January 2012 entitled The Future of American Power in the 21st Century. During the forum, Republican Senator Bob Corker explained that “the American people absolutely would not be prepared psychologically for an event where the world began to believe that it was not the greatest power on earth.”
Since Americans are psychologically incapable of preparing for such a world, they will wake up with a rude shock when the IMF announces one day that America has become the number two economy. In this process, it is inevitable that Americans will react angrily and feel cheated by China. This political shock is predictable but unavoidable.
In view of this, it is actually possible for America and China to achieve a new modus operandi with a philosophy of “live and let live”, in which neither America nor China challenges each other’s core interests. China will not try to displace America from regions that America values, like the Middle East. However, it would expect America to be sensitive to its core interests, like Taiwan. All these adjustments will require sensitive diplomatic negotiations. The time to prepare for them is now.
Source: America and China: Destined for Conflict or Cooperation? We Asked 14 of the World’s Most Renowned Experts | The National Interest