Americans will have a lot to celebrate when the U.S. turns 250 on July 4, 2026. No other empire has accumulated as much power — both hard power and soft power — as the U.S. has. Neither the Roman empire nor the British empire could have matched the reach and global influence of America.
In theory, the U.S. isn’t an empire. In practice, it is. The U.S. is the only military power that can declare war and deliver “shock and awe” to any corner of the world. Yet, what’s even more powerful than its aircraft carrier fleets is the almighty U.S. dollar. No country can afford to be cut off from it. This is why American sanctions have a sharp bite. Countries comply with them. Even a major French bank like BNP Paribas had to pay a huge fine of $8.9 billion in 2014, during the “benign” administration of Barack Obama.
There’s no question that American soft power has declined recently. Survey after survey confirms this. 2 Yet, on America’s 250th anniversary, one must take the long view in assessing its impact on the world. Over two decades ago, in my book Beyond the Age of Innocence, I said that “America has done more good for the rest of the world than any other great power. This statement is surely incontestable.” In the eighty years since the end of World War II, American initiatives like the Marshall Plan in Europe and the open access to American markets sparked the rise of many new economic powers, including China and India, South Korea and Singapore. The benign rules‑based order of 1945 that America underwrote has sparked one of the greatest advancements of the human condition in human 1 Kishore Mahbubani, a Distinguished Fellow at the Asia Research Institute, NUS, is the author of Living the Asian Century. 2 Pew Research Center, “Views of the U.S. have worsened while opinions of China have improved in many surveyed countries,” July 15, 2025. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/07/15/views-of-the-us- have-worsened-while-opinions-of-china-have-improved-in-many-surveyed-countries/ 2 history. Reports of the death of this order are exaggerated. Prime Minister Mark Carney was right when he said in January 2026 that there had been a “rupture” in the world order. Yet, it’s equally true that the global system has shown resilience, with global economic growth holding steady and global trade flows rising to an all-time high of over US$35 trillion, even in 2025.
Still, despite the many successes of American power, there’s no question that American society faces many challenges, internal and external. Internally, as I documented in my book Has China Won?, America has functionally become a “plutocracy.” The top 1% have seen their fortunes soar. The bottom 50% have seen their living standards stagnate, as Angus Deaton and Anne Case have documented in their work on “deaths of despair”. By contrast, the bottom 50% in China have just experienced the best 40 years of social and economic development in the 4,000 years of Chinese history. Externally, America has squandered precious resources fighting unnecessary “forever wars”. By contrast, China has performed a miracle by emerging as a great power without fighting a major war in almost 50 years. President Trump acknowledged this when he said, “Isn’t it incredible, they’ve become so powerful without firing a shot.” As the competition between America and China accelerates, both sides must understand better their respective strengths and weaknesses.
President Trump was therefore absolutely right when he said America should stop fighting “forever wars.” When the Iran war is over, America should refrain from fighting more wars, if only because each war that America gets entangled in is a geopolitical gift to its primary competitor, China.
Even though America faces many serious challenges, it would be a huge mistake to underestimate America. For most countries, political contestation and chaos have negative effects. In American society, they seem to strengthen the texture and fibre of American 3 society, producing remarkably strong individuals. It is hard to believe that when the Cold War ended in 1991, none of the Magnificent 7 — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla — had even been born. Yet, in the last 35 years, even though some were difficult and challenging, the U.S. has progressed enormously and produced corporate giants which dominate the global economic landscape. In short, despite America’s short‑term travails, its long-term political genius and resilience will keep it strong and enable it to lead the world.